Monmouthshire: Seat Details

Monmouthshire: Overview

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2024:Catherine Fookes  (LAB)
County/Area:Gwent (Wales)
Electorate:74,823
Turnout:68.0%

Party2024
Votes
2024
Share
Pred
Votes
LAB21,01041.3%37.4%
CON17,67234.8%35.1%
Reform5,43810.7%14.1%
Green2,3574.6%5.4%
LIB2,2794.5%4.7%
Plaid1,2732.5%2.5%
OTH8151.6%0.7%
LAB Majority3,3386.6%2.4%
Pred Maj
Chance of winning
LAB
56%
CON
43%
Reform
1%
Green
0%
LIB
0%
Plaid
0%
OTH
0%

Monmouthshire : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Monmouthshire constituency, the 'Wales' area and nation.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2021 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat WalesAll GB
Party Winner 2024LABLABLAB
Party Winner 2019CONLABCON
Party Winner 2017CONLABCON
Economic Position5° Right8° Left
National Position2° Nat
Social Position2° Lib
TribeCentrists
EU Leave %50%53%52%
Average Age54.351.149.5
Good Education55%49%49%
Employed55%53%58%
Homeowner74%67%63%
Car owner88%81%77%
Married51%44%45%
Ethnic White97%94%83%
Christian52%47%50%
ABC1 Class62%52%56%
Gross Household Income£42,665£36,386£42,397
Deprivation48%54%52%
Average House Price£309,892£193,404£313,528

Monmouthshire ranks #412 for "Leave", #284 for "Economic Right Position", #354 for "National Position" and #379 for "Social Conservative Position" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions
View descriptions and colour schemes of the table

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class), 'Gross Household Income', 'Individual Disposable Income' and 'Average House Price' all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic Position Very Left Left Centrist Right Very Right
National Position Very Global Global Centrist National Very Nat
Social Position Very Lib Liberal Moderate Conservative Very Cons
EU Leave % Very Remain Remain Balanced Leave Very Leave
Census Very Low Low Medium High Very High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
Average AgeAge (TS007A)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
Good EducationHighest level of qualification (TS067)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
EmployedEconomic activity status (TS066)Part-time, full-time employed or self-employed
HomeownerTenure (TS054)Own a property with or without a mortgage, or with shared ownership
Car ownerCar or van availability (TS045)In a household with at least one car or van
MarriedLegal partnership status (TS002)Married or civil partnership
Ethnic WhiteEthnic group (TS021)White British, Irish, Gypsy, Roma or other
ChristianReligion (TS030)Christian or Christian denomination (NI)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (SG002)Approximated social grades A, B and C1
Gross Household IncomeMedian gross household income, including cash benefits, but before tax. Values as at 2018. Source: ONS Small area estimates (E&W), Scottish Government (Scotland), plus additional Electoral Calculus modelling.
DeprivationHouseholds by deprivation dimensions (TS011)Fraction of households which are classed as deprived on one or more of the following four indicators: employment (unemployed or long-term sick); education (no good GCSE); health and disability (bad health or long-term problem); and housing (overcrowded, shared or no central heating).
Average House PriceAverage residential property price (including flats and houses) around 2019. Sources: Land Registry, Statistics Scotland, NI Department of Finance

Monmouthshire: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2022, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors


Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Monmouthshire

This table shows the predicted future general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Monmouthshire.

MonmouthshireActualPredicted
DistrictWardElectorate
2024
GE24
Winner
Pred
Winner
MonmouthshireBulwark and Thornwell3,902LABLAB
MonmouthshireCaerwent1,822CONCON
MonmouthshireCaldicot Castle1,402LABLAB
MonmouthshireCaldicot Cross1,628LABLAB
MonmouthshireCantref1,709LABLAB
MonmouthshireChepstow Castle and Larkfield2,465LABLAB
MonmouthshireCroesonen1,571LABLAB
MonmouthshireCrucorney1,673CONCON
MonmouthshireDevauden1,329CONCON
MonmouthshireDewstow1,516LABLAB
MonmouthshireDrybridge1,794CONCON
MonmouthshireGobion Fawr1,694CONCON
MonmouthshireGoetre Fawr1,880CONCON
MonmouthshireGrofield1,846LABLAB
MonmouthshireLansdown1,761LABLAB
MonmouthshireLlanbadoc and Usk3,117CONCON
MonmouthshireLlanelly3,357LABLAB
MonmouthshireLlanfoist Fawr and Govilon3,020LABLAB
MonmouthshireLlangybi Fawr1,521CONCON
MonmouthshireLlantilio Crossenny1,704CONCON
MonmouthshireMagor East with Undy3,231CONCON
MonmouthshireMagor West1,707LABCON
MonmouthshireMardy1,274CONCON
MonmouthshireMitchel Troy and Trellech United3,130CONCON
MonmouthshireMount Pleasant1,591CONCON
MonmouthshireOsbaston1,736CONCON
MonmouthshireOvermonnow1,488LABLAB
MonmouthshirePark1,566LABLAB
MonmouthshirePen Y Fal1,557LABCON
MonmouthshirePortskewett1,924LABLAB
MonmouthshireRaglan1,767CONCON
MonmouthshireRogiet1,454LABLAB
MonmouthshireSevern1,815LABLAB
MonmouthshireShirenewton1,805CONCON
MonmouthshireSt Arvans1,559CONCON
MonmouthshireSt Kingsmark1,554CONCON
MonmouthshireTown1,772CONCON
MonmouthshireWest End1,436LABLAB
MonmouthshireWyesham1,747LABLAB
 Total74,824LABLAB

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official. The wards used are those of 2024.


© 2024 Electoral Calculus Ltd
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