Battlemap

This table converts percentage support for the parties into seats at Westminster. Each box contains the number of seats for respectively CON, LAB and LIB. There are 650 seats in total, and a party needs 326 seats to have an absolute majority. The method assumes a Uniform National Swing from the current prediction baseline.

At the 2019 election, the parties' vote shares were CON 44.7%, LAB 33.0% and LIB 11.8%. The seats won were CON 365, LAB 203, LIB 11. Additionally there were 48 seats won by Scots Nationalists, 4 seats by Welsh nationalists, 18 seats in Northern Ireland, and one seat won by the Greens.

The Conservatives had a majority of 80 seats (80 = 2×365 − 650).

To lose their majority, the Conservatives would have to suffer a swing towards Labour of about four per cent (CON 41%, LAB 37%). For Labour to get a majority, they need a swing away from the Conservatives of about twelve per cent (CON 33%, LAB 45%).

Return to Prediction page or the Election home page.

How to use this battlemap

1. Estimate the current level of support for the two main parties. This could come from a single opinion poll, an average of opinion polls, an on-the-night exit poll, or private sources or intuition.
2. Take the CON level of support and find the appropriate column.
3. Move down the rows until you get to the LAB level of support.
4. Look across to the appropriate column and see the three numbers (blue, red, orange). These are the predicted number of seats for CON, LAB and LIB respectively.
5. Example: look up the case where CON 35%, LAB 35% and we get the answer (CON 279, LAB 268, LIB 30).
6. If a party has an absolute majority in Parliament it is shown in bold.