Battlemap

This table converts percentage support for the parties into seats at Westminster. Each box contains the number of seats for respectively CON, LAB and LIB. There are 650 seats in total under the new boundaries, and a party needs 326 seats to have an absolute majority. The method assumes a Uniform National Swing.

At the 2005 election, the parties vote share was CON 33.2%, LAB 36.2% and LIB 22.6%. The implied seats won were CON 209, LAB 346, LIB 66. Additionally there were 8 seats won by Scots (6) and Welsh (2) nationalists, 18 seats in Northern Ireland, and three seats won Independents (Wyre Forest, Bethnal Green and Bow, and Blaenau Gwent).

Labour had an implied majority of 2*346-650=42.

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How to use this battlemap

Estimate the current level of support for the two main parties. This could come from a single opinion poll, an average of opinion polls, an on-the-night exit poll, or private sources or intuition.
Take the CON level of support and find the appropriate column.
Move down the rows until you get to the LAB level of support.
Look across to the appropriate column and see the three numbers (blue, red, yellow). These are the predicted number of seats for CON, LAB and LIB respectively.
Example: look up 2005 result as CON 33%, LAB 36%, and we get seats of 207, 346, 68 respectively. Which is (approximately) what (was implied to have) happened.
If a party has an absolute majority in Parliament it is shown in bold.

Sophisticated users can learn how to power-use the Battlemap to adjust for minor parties.

		Conservative
		30%	31%	32%	33%	34%	35%	36%	37%	38%	39%	40%	41%	42%	43%	44%	45%	46%	47%	48%	49%	50%
		149	194	218	242	269	285	302	320	336	349	365	380	396	408	414	418	430	437	454	467	479
Labour	20%	80	87	96	101	114	115	119	121	123	122	124	119	122	119	120	119	116	114	109	105	101
		393	341	307	277	235	217	196	177	160	148	130	120	103	94	87	84	75	70	59	50	42
		168	209	228	257	280	288	304	319	339	352	364	377	394	402	415	420	426	439	453	465	478
	21%	100	107	117	119	123	131	135	137	136	135	136	137	132	129	125	125	124	120	118	113	107
		354	305	275	242	214	198	178	162	144	132	119	105	95	90	81	76	71	62	51	44	36
		186	213	232	263	280	297	307	321	331	349	364	378	388	401	408	421	426	437	454	462	473
	22%	127	133	135	138	141	142	151	154	159	153	150	147	146	138	134	129	130	130	123	122	116
		309	274	251	216	196	178	159	143	129	117	105	94	87	82	79	71	65	54	45	37	32
		201	217	243	267	279	298	310	321	331	341	360	373	384	394	407	416	429	440	452	462	466
	23%	143	152	155	159	164	163	169	172	172	172	165	159	153	151	145	141	135	135	133	127	125
		276	249	220	192	175	157	139	126	117	107	95	88	85	77	70	65	58	47	37	33	31
		204	222	243	267	278	294	312	320	329	340	353	368	380	389	399	412	429	442	451	457	467
	24%	170	172	182	181	188	185	181	184	187	184	179	170	167	161	157	150	146	141	137	134	129
		244	224	193	170	152	139	125	115	104	96	88	82	75	72	66	60	47	39	34	31	26
		205	227	251	261	279	289	305	319	328	337	348	356	374	385	396	407	422	441	450	456	467
Labour	25%	195	198	204	205	202	205	204	196	194	193	192	188	177	172	168	164	156	147	139	140	135
		218	193	163	152	137	124	109	104	98	90	80	76	71	65	58	51	43	34	33	26	20
		205	228	248	259	271	290	297	311	326	338	344	352	362	379	388	406	420	431	446	458	466
	26%	222	222	222	225	227	219	218	211	206	204	201	198	195	184	179	171	165	159	148	141	140
		191	168	148	134	120	109	103	97	88	78	75	70	65	59	55	44	36	32	28	23	16
		212	228	243	259	269	281	295	303	319	334	340	348	359	368	388	401	415	426	438	454	465
	27%	240	248	247	240	239	236	229	228	219	212	211	208	204	198	188	179	173	166	159	149	142
		166	142	128	119	110	101	94	88	82	74	69	64	59	56	45	41	33	30	25	19	15
		208	229	237	250	269	275	285	302	314	326	338	344	355	369	380	395	409	421	433	448	459
	28%	267	262	264	258	251	250	244	235	235	226	218	213	210	205	199	192	181	175	168	158	150
		143	127	117	110	98	93	89	82	71	68	64	63	56	47	42	34	31	26	21	16	13
		209	219	235	244	259	272	279	293	311	316	330	341	353	365	377	389	401	418	427	438	449
	29%	283	282	276	276	267	258	258	251	241	237	228	222	216	211	205	200	192	183	177	172	162
		126	117	107	98	92	88	81	75	68	67	62	57	51	44	38	32	28	21	18	12	11
		205	217	225	244	249	262	277	290	301	315	320	335	350	361	374	384	396	413	422	432	441
Labour	30%	299	295	293	284	285	275	265	260	253	244	240	231	225	220	215	208	202	192	187	179	173
		114	106	100	90	84	81	76	69	66	61	60	53	45	39	31	28	22	17	13	11	8
		200	212	223	232	246	252	268	286	293	304	318	329	340	359	370	378	391	402	417	424	432
	31%	312	308	306	302	291	287	277	268	263	257	247	243	239	229	222	219	211	204	194	189	183
		106	98	89	84	81	79	73	65	64	59	54	47	40	32	28	23	18	15	10	9	7
		198	208	218	229	235	251	262	276	289	296	310	326	336	350	361	375	385	398	407	417	424
	32%	325	320	315	307	304	294	290	280	272	267	261	252	247	244	235	227	220	212	205	197	191
		95	90	85	82	79	73	66	63	59	56	48	41	36	26	24	18	15	11	9	7	6
		194	202	212	223	232	241	259	266	280	293	305	318	336	342	354	365	380	390	400	407	418
	33%	334	329	324	318	311	308	296	294	283	279	272	268	257	253	247	240	230	223	215	209	199
		91	88	83	78	76	70	64	60	57	48	43	34	27	25	20	16	11	9	7	6	5
		185	199	207	215	228	242	249	262	271	283	301	312	326	339	349	359	369	378	391	399	408
	34%	346	337	332	327	319	313	309	303	298	295	283	278	270	261	256	249	244	237	225	217	210
		88	83	80	77	72	64	61	54	51	42	36	30	24	20	16	13	8	7	6	6	4
		178	189	204	211	222	234	245	253	265	280	291	306	317	328	340	351	359	371	376	391	400
Labour	35%	356	349	340	335	330	326	320	319	312	304	297	291	283	277	269	262	255	244	240	226	219
		86	82	76	74	68	60	54	48	44	37	33	24	21	16	12	8	7	7	6	5	3
		178	182	194	207	220	230	238	249	259	270	287	298	311	320	327	340	350	361	371	375	388
	36%	361	360	354	346	341	339	332	329	323	317	310	301	297	291	287	274	265	256	249	245	232
		82	79	73	68	60	51	50	43	40	35	25	23	14	11	8	8	7	6	3	3	3
		172	183	186	203	216	225	234	246	256	268	281	292	305	314	323	328	342	353	362	371	376
	37%	371	366	364	359	350	346	340	334	332	326	321	315	305	298	291	287	276	266	258	249	246
		78	72	71	59	54	49	46	41	34	28	20	15	12	10	8	7	4	4	3	3	1
		171	177	187	199	210	221	231	242	252	265	273	287	296	309	316	324	329	344	354	363	368
	38%	376	376	371	368	361	353	350	344	340	337	331	323	316	306	301	294	290	277	267	259	256
		75	69	64	54	50	47	40	36	31	21	19	13	11	8	6	5	4	3	3	2	0
		173	175	188	195	207	214	227	238	251	263	271	280	290	299	310	318	325	331	341	349	354
	39%	380	380	377	374	368	364	358	354	348	341	337	331	325	318	308	301	294	290	280	275	270
		69	67	56	52	46	43	36	30	24	19	15	12	8	6	5	4	4	3	3	0	0
		172	177	186	195	201	213	221	233	248	256	269	275	284	292	300	311	319	327	331	337	341
Labour	40%	384	383	383	379	378	372	368	359	354	348	343	339	333	325	318	308	301	294	293	287	284
		66	61	52	47	42	36	32	30	21	19	11	9	6	6	5	4	3	3	0	0	0
		30%	31%	32%	33%	34%	35%	36%	37%	38%	39%	40%	41%	42%	43%	44%	45%	46%	47%	48%	49%	50%
		Conservative

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