| Party | 2024 Votes | 2024 Seats | Pred Votes | Gains | Losses | Net Change | Pred Seats |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CON | 18.2% | 0 | 17.3% | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 |
| LAB | 37.0% | 27 | 27.6% | 0 | 13 | -13 | 14 |
| LIB | 6.5% | 1 | 6.7% | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| Reform | 16.9% | 0 | 27.8% | 16 | 0 | +16 | 16 |
| Green | 4.7% | 0 | 5.3% | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 |
| Plaid | 14.8% | 4 | 14.7% | 0 | 2 | -2 | 2 |
| Other | 2.0% | 0 | 0.5% | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 |
This page shows all the seats in Wales sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The seat 'Blaenau Gwent and Rhymney' where the LAB−CON difference is biggest is at the top. And the seat 'Ynys Mon (Anglesey)', where the CON−LAB difference is biggest, is at the bottom. These extreme seats may not always have the largest majorities, due to the presence of other parties.
The first two columns, 'LAB Seats' and 'CON Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Ynys Mon (Anglesey) (prediction: Reform), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Blaenau Gwent and Rhymney (prediction: LAB).
The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.
More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.
| LAB Seats | CON Seats | Seat | MP at 2024 | Electorate | Turn Out% | CON % | LAB % | LIB % | Reform % | Green % | Plaid % | MIN % | OTH % | 2024 Win | Pred Win |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 64 | 302 | Blaenau Gwent and Rhymney | Nick Smith | 70,153 | 42.7 | 12.1 | 36.1 | 5.7 | 19.3 | 6.3 | 18.0 | 2.4 | 0.1 | LAB | LAB |
| 68 | 297 | Rhondda and Ogmore | Chris Bryant | 74,493 | 48.1 | 8.1 | 31.5 | 3.9 | 32.8 | 4.3 | 19.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 76 | 290 | Aberafan Maesteg | Stephen Kinnock | 72,580 | 49.3 | 10.4 | 32.5 | 4.2 | 30.3 | 4.2 | 18.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 85 | 281 | Cardiff East | Jo Stevens | 72,873 | 53.7 | 11.6 | 32.9 | 8.9 | 21.6 | 9.1 | 15.9 | 0.0 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 86 | 280 | Pontypridd | Alex Davies-Jones | 75,951 | 51.8 | 10.5 | 31.8 | 5.3 | 28.0 | 5.6 | 18.7 | 0.0 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 97 | 268 | Merthyr Tydfil and Aberdare | Gerald Jones | 74,460 | 47.3 | 9.5 | 29.0 | 3.7 | 31.6 | 4.0 | 18.7 | 3.6 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 101 | 265 | Bridgend | Chris Elmore | 73,152 | 56.6 | 16.4 | 35.0 | 6.8 | 27.9 | 6.3 | 7.4 | 0.0 | 0.1 | LAB | LAB |
| 103 | 263 | Swansea West | Torsten Bell | 74,236 | 48.0 | 11.4 | 29.8 | 6.7 | 27.5 | 6.4 | 18.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 107 | 258 | Neath and Swansea East | Carolyn Harris | 76,291 | 52.6 | 10.8 | 28.4 | 4.6 | 33.0 | 4.6 | 18.6 | 0.0 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 124 | 242 | Cardiff South and Penarth | Stephen Doughty | 72,613 | 54.0 | 15.7 | 31.6 | 8.5 | 21.0 | 13.1 | 10.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 140 | 225 | Caerphilly | Chris Evans | 72,643 | 52.6 | 12.5 | 26.9 | 7.1 | 30.9 | 5.1 | 17.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 152 | 214 | Cardiff West | Alex Barros-Curtis | 75,473 | 59.3 | 16.3 | 28.9 | 7.4 | 22.1 | 7.5 | 17.8 | 0.0 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 154 | 211 | Newport West and Islwyn | Ruth Jones | 75,781 | 55.4 | 16.8 | 29.3 | 7.8 | 30.5 | 5.8 | 9.8 | 0.0 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 156 | 209 | Torfaen | Nick Thomas-Symonds | 71,738 | 49.8 | 16.3 | 28.6 | 7.6 | 32.9 | 5.5 | 9.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 158 | 207 | Llanelli | Nia Griffith | 71,536 | 57.0 | 11.6 | 23.5 | 6.1 | 36.6 | 3.8 | 18.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 159 | 206 | Newport East | Jessica Morden | 76,845 | 50.1 | 17.8 | 29.6 | 7.9 | 30.9 | 6.0 | 7.7 | 0.0 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 166 | 200 | Gower | Tonia Antoniazzi | 76,123 | 62.0 | 19.5 | 29.4 | 7.7 | 27.4 | 5.7 | 10.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 170 | 195 | Alyn and Deeside | Mark Tami | 75,790 | 57.3 | 18.6 | 28.3 | 7.5 | 33.1 | 5.1 | 7.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 171 | 195 | Cardiff North | Anna McMorrin | 71,335 | 66.5 | 21.3 | 31.0 | 8.3 | 20.9 | 7.2 | 11.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 179 | 186 | Montgomeryshire and Glyndwr | Steve Witherden | 74,039 | 58.4 | 17.4 | 26.0 | 9.6 | 32.6 | 4.6 | 9.9 | 0.0 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 182 | 184 | Wrexham | Andrew Steven Ranger | 70,269 | 57.5 | 22.1 | 30.3 | 5.7 | 29.2 | 4.7 | 8.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 192 | 173 | Bangor Aberconwy | Claire Hughes | 69,023 | 60.4 | 19.8 | 24.4 | 6.3 | 26.7 | 4.1 | 18.7 | 0.0 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 192 | 173 | Dwyfor Meirionnydd | Liz Saville Roberts | 73,042 | 55.3 | 10.1 | 14.7 | 3.2 | 23.6 | 3.3 | 45.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | Plaid | Plaid |
| 197 | 169 | Clwyd East | Becky Gittins | 76,637 | 62.4 | 25.8 | 29.6 | 5.5 | 27.4 | 4.8 | 7.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 199 | 167 | Vale of Glamorgan | Kanishka Narayan | 74,374 | 61.6 | 26.9 | 30.2 | 5.3 | 25.4 | 5.7 | 6.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 202 | 163 | Brecon, Radnor and Cwm Tawe | David Chadwick | 73,114 | 63.7 | 22.0 | 24.2 | 16.8 | 27.7 | 3.7 | 5.6 | 0.0 | 0.0 | LIB | Reform |
| 205 | 161 | Monmouthshire | Catherine Fookes | 74,823 | 68.0 | 30.5 | 32.0 | 5.7 | 22.0 | 5.6 | 4.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 205 | 160 | Ceredigion Preseli | Ben Lake | 75,690 | 61.2 | 10.2 | 11.4 | 9.7 | 24.2 | 3.0 | 34.5 | 6.8 | 0.0 | Plaid | Plaid |
| 207 | 158 | Caerfyrddin (Carmarthen) | Ann Davies | 74,003 | 61.6 | 17.2 | 17.7 | 4.9 | 28.6 | 3.2 | 25.5 | 3.0 | 0.0 | Plaid | Reform |
| 212 | 153 | Pembrokeshire Mid and South | Henry Tufnell | 79,031 | 59.0 | 27.5 | 26.9 | 5.7 | 29.0 | 4.7 | 6.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 216 | 149 | Clwyd North | Gill German | 75,027 | 55.5 | 27.5 | 26.5 | 5.2 | 29.5 | 4.5 | 6.7 | 0.0 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 236 | 129 | Ynys Mon (Anglesey) | Llinos Medi | 53,141 | 61.4 | 23.9 | 18.5 | 4.8 | 25.3 | 2.9 | 24.6 | 0.0 | 0.0 | Plaid | Reform |
Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2024. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.