| Party | 2024 Votes | 2024 Seats | Pred Votes | Gains | Losses | Net Change | Pred Seats |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CON | 18.2% | 0 | 20.7% | 5 | 0 | +5 | 5 |
| LAB | 37.0% | 27 | 30.0% | 0 | 6 | -6 | 21 |
| LIB | 6.5% | 1 | 6.2% | 0 | 0 | +0 | 1 |
| Reform | 16.9% | 0 | 21.5% | 2 | 0 | +2 | 2 |
| Green | 4.7% | 0 | 6.3% | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 |
| Plaid | 14.8% | 4 | 14.8% | 0 | 1 | -1 | 3 |
| Other | 2.0% | 0 | 0.4% | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 |
This page shows all the seats in Wales sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The seat 'Rhondda and Ogmore' where the LAB−CON difference is biggest is at the top. And the seat 'Ynys Mon (Anglesey)', where the CON−LAB difference is biggest, is at the bottom. These extreme seats may not always have the largest majorities, due to the presence of other parties.
The first two columns, 'LAB Seats' and 'CON Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Monmouthshire (prediction: CON), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Gower (prediction: LAB).
The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.
More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.
| LAB Seats | CON Seats | Seat | MP at 2024 | Electorate | Turn Out% | CON % | LAB % | LIB % | Reform % | Green % | Plaid % | MIN % | OTH % | 2024 Win | Pred Win |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 44 | 475 | Rhondda and Ogmore | Chris Bryant | 74,493 | 48.1 | 7.8 | 40.8 | 2.5 | 29.8 | 4.6 | 14.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 48 | 471 | Aberafan Maesteg | Stephen Kinnock | 72,580 | 49.3 | 10.7 | 42.9 | 2.4 | 25.6 | 4.7 | 13.2 | 0.0 | 0.4 | LAB | LAB |
| 65 | 454 | Blaenau Gwent and Rhymney | Nick Smith | 70,153 | 42.7 | 16.9 | 46.6 | 4.0 | 7.6 | 8.5 | 12.8 | 1.9 | 1.6 | LAB | LAB |
| 76 | 443 | Merthyr Tydfil and Aberdare | Gerald Jones | 74,460 | 47.3 | 10.1 | 37.9 | 3.4 | 28.1 | 5.1 | 13.5 | 1.5 | 0.3 | LAB | LAB |
| 127 | 392 | Neath and Swansea East | Carolyn Harris | 76,291 | 52.6 | 11.5 | 34.9 | 5.5 | 29.1 | 5.6 | 13.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 139 | 380 | Swansea West | Torsten Bell | 74,236 | 48.0 | 12.3 | 34.4 | 11.7 | 21.8 | 8.0 | 11.5 | 0.0 | 0.2 | LAB | LAB |
| 143 | 376 | Cardiff South and Penarth | Stephen Doughty | 72,613 | 54.0 | 16.1 | 37.5 | 7.0 | 15.3 | 15.8 | 8.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 145 | 374 | Cardiff East | Jo Stevens | 72,873 | 53.7 | 12.3 | 33.5 | 16.7 | 16.8 | 11.5 | 9.1 | 0.0 | 0.1 | LAB | LAB |
| 148 | 371 | Pontypridd | Alex Davies-Jones | 75,951 | 51.8 | 13.4 | 34.2 | 3.9 | 26.7 | 7.2 | 13.4 | 0.0 | 1.3 | LAB | LAB |
| 169 | 350 | Caerphilly | Chris Evans | 72,643 | 52.6 | 13.6 | 31.1 | 4.4 | 24.0 | 5.7 | 21.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 175 | 344 | Torfaen | Nick Thomas-Symonds | 71,738 | 49.8 | 18.8 | 35.5 | 4.4 | 27.0 | 6.6 | 7.2 | 0.0 | 0.5 | LAB | LAB |
| 187 | 332 | Newport West and Islwyn | Ruth Jones | 75,781 | 55.4 | 19.0 | 34.5 | 4.7 | 25.8 | 6.9 | 8.4 | 0.0 | 0.7 | LAB | LAB |
| 189 | 330 | Newport East | Jessica Morden | 76,845 | 50.1 | 20.1 | 35.5 | 5.0 | 25.0 | 7.6 | 5.8 | 0.0 | 0.9 | LAB | LAB |
| 192 | 327 | Gower | Tonia Antoniazzi | 76,123 | 62.0 | 21.1 | 36.4 | 5.2 | 22.1 | 6.7 | 8.3 | 0.0 | 0.1 | LAB | LAB |
| 198 | 321 | Cardiff North | Anna McMorrin | 71,335 | 66.5 | 22.4 | 36.9 | 6.3 | 16.4 | 8.0 | 9.8 | 0.0 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 200 | 319 | Alyn and Deeside | Mark Tami | 75,790 | 57.3 | 21.1 | 35.4 | 4.5 | 27.4 | 6.4 | 4.5 | 0.0 | 0.6 | LAB | LAB |
| 210 | 309 | Bridgend | Chris Elmore | 73,152 | 56.6 | 20.3 | 33.0 | 3.3 | 26.3 | 6.9 | 8.8 | 0.0 | 1.4 | LAB | LAB |
| 219 | 300 | Cardiff West | Alex Barros-Curtis | 75,473 | 59.3 | 18.1 | 29.8 | 4.1 | 17.6 | 8.9 | 21.1 | 0.0 | 0.5 | LAB | LAB |
| 223 | 295 | Llanelli | Nia Griffith | 71,536 | 57.0 | 12.9 | 24.3 | 2.9 | 32.0 | 4.3 | 23.3 | 0.0 | 0.3 | LAB | Reform |
| 269 | 250 | Wrexham | Andrew Steven Ranger | 70,269 | 57.5 | 26.9 | 32.3 | 4.2 | 21.4 | 4.9 | 10.2 | 0.0 | 0.2 | LAB | LAB |
| 290 | 229 | Bangor Aberconwy | Claire Hughes | 69,023 | 60.4 | 24.1 | 26.7 | 3.5 | 18.9 | 4.8 | 21.9 | 0.0 | 0.2 | LAB | LAB |
| 290 | 228 | Montgomeryshire and Glyndwr | Steve Witherden | 74,039 | 58.4 | 20.1 | 22.4 | 14.4 | 24.5 | 5.4 | 13.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 308 | 211 | Clwyd East | Becky Gittins | 76,637 | 62.4 | 31.4 | 31.7 | 3.7 | 20.2 | 5.0 | 7.8 | 0.0 | 0.2 | LAB | LAB |
| 313 | 206 | Vale of Glamorgan | Kanishka Narayan | 74,374 | 61.6 | 32.0 | 31.7 | 3.3 | 19.7 | 5.7 | 7.1 | 0.0 | 0.3 | LAB | CON |
| 337 | 182 | Monmouthshire | Catherine Fookes | 74,823 | 68.0 | 37.2 | 34.4 | 4.3 | 15.1 | 6.2 | 2.5 | 0.0 | 0.3 | LAB | CON |
| 351 | 167 | Caerfyrddin (Carmarthen) | Ann Davies | 74,003 | 61.6 | 21.6 | 17.1 | 3.0 | 19.2 | 4.4 | 34.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | Plaid | Plaid |
| 359 | 160 | Pembrokeshire Mid and South | Henry Tufnell | 79,031 | 59.0 | 33.8 | 28.4 | 4.8 | 21.2 | 5.1 | 6.4 | 0.0 | 0.3 | LAB | CON |
| 362 | 157 | Clwyd North | Gill German | 75,027 | 55.5 | 34.7 | 28.6 | 3.8 | 20.6 | 4.7 | 7.6 | 0.0 | 0.0 | LAB | CON |
| 362 | 156 | Dwyfor Meirionnydd | Liz Saville Roberts | 73,042 | 55.3 | 13.9 | 7.7 | 3.2 | 16.1 | 5.0 | 53.9 | 0.0 | 0.1 | Plaid | Plaid |
| 372 | 146 | Ceredigion Preseli | Ben Lake | 75,690 | 61.2 | 12.5 | 4.7 | 14.5 | 15.5 | 5.4 | 46.9 | 0.5 | 0.0 | Plaid | Plaid |
| 423 | 95 | Brecon, Radnor and Cwm Tawe | David Chadwick | 73,114 | 63.7 | 28.8 | 14.3 | 29.0 | 18.6 | 4.2 | 4.9 | 0.0 | 0.2 | LIB | LIB |
| 435 | 84 | Ynys Mon (Anglesey) | Llinos Medi | 53,141 | 61.4 | 32.7 | 16.4 | 1.3 | 13.8 | 3.3 | 32.5 | 0.0 | 0.1 | Plaid | CON |
Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2024. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.